EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Climate change remains one of the most urgent global challenges, requiring coordinated action across all nations. Its impacts—ranging from disrupted ecosystems to threats to agriculture, health, and human development—are especially severe for vulnerable groups such as the poor, women, children, the elderly, and people with disabilities. Recognizing these threats, Kira Municipality undertook a Climate Change Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CCRVA) to evaluate both current and future climate-related risks and vulnerabilities, with the aim of informing targeted, resilience-building strategies.

The assessment analyzed historical climate data (1995–2014) and future projections under two emission scenarios—SSP2-4.5 (intermediate) and SSP5-8.5 (high) for four timeframes extending to 2099. Using both meteorological station data and gridded datasets developed through spatial interpolation, the study confirmed a general rise in temperature and rainfall across all future scenarios. A mixed-methods approach was adopted, incorporating both primary data (household surveys and key informant interviews, covering 439 households) and secondary data.

Climate hazards identified include high temperatures, droughts, heavy rainfall, and floods, alongside localized threats like mudflows, heatwaves, hailstorms, and wildfires.

Using the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Fifth Assessment Report (IPCC AR5) risk and vulnerability framework, the study assessed exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity across Kira’s three divisions Namugongo, Kira, and Bweyogerere with a focus on five key domains: livelihoods, health and safety, socio-economic services, water supply, and infrastructure. Notably: Namugongo scored low in adaptive capacity, signaling the need for basic services and community empowerment. Bweyogerere showed strong resilience due to effective initiatives such as rainwater harvesting and micro-credit programs and Kira Division displayed intermediate capacity, requiring targeted interventions in underserved areas.

Environmental degradation driven by industrial expansion, poor waste management, and wetland encroachment, particularly in areas like Namanve, Kitukutwe, and Kasangati Road, has intensified the impacts of climate hazards especially floods. The community also revealed a low level of awareness and understanding of climate change and its long-term consequences.

Based on societal responses, field validation, and alignment with Uganda’s national policies (e.g., the Constitution, Updated NDC 2022, National Climate Change Policy 2015, and Climate Change Act 2021), the assessment identified key threats including;